Niftypredictor

Wish you happy new year

2009-03-26T19:11:00.004+05:00

Morning update Thu, 12th Mar:

2009-03-12T08:23:00.001+05:00

Fading Gap up, intraday traders may initiate shorts at open to cover EOD.
Expect a gap up open for Indian markets and the nifty may lose opening gains gradually as the trade progresses. The intra-day traders may initiate ‘shorts’ at open itself to cover at EOD.

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Morning update Mon, 9th Mar:

2009-03-09T08:48:00.001+05:00

Weak open-downtrend resumes-Hold shorts to cover EOD-Risky traders may carry shorts for Thursday open.

On Thursday, it was mentioned “The traders must exit all long / CE positions before Friday EOD and use this bounce to re-initiate fresh shorts / PE on Fri EOD”. Expect the weak open for Indian market and the nifty may try to retain levels for initial hour followed by further drifting. The intra-day traders may initiate short / PE at open to cover EOD. The high risk traders may carry shorts for Thursday open. Due to ‘Time decay’ (holidays) it’s better to short CE than holding PE.

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Morning update Thu, 5th Mar:

2009-03-05T08:33:00.001+05:00

Flat open, Prefer intraday trades only & risky trades may carry long for Friday. The Fri bounce must be used to exit all long positions if any as well initiate fresh shorts / PE.

The nifty paused after consistent fall indicates strong chances for a dead cat bounce on Fri. The traders should prefer intraday trades only and the risky traders may carry longs (in very small qty) for Fri. The traders must exit all long / CE positions before Friday EOD and use this bounce to re-initiate fresh shorts / PE on Fri EOD.

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Morning update Wed, 4th Mar:

2009-03-04T08:24:00.001+05:00

Flat or some –ve open, use close TSL to shorts / PE. Book profits before EOD. Prefer intra till Fri EOD & reenter short / PE at Fri EOD.

Most of the chat room members are holding shorts / PE heavily (in good profits too). Today, expect yet another flat or slightly –ve open and the nifty may trade weak for the day. Although it’s not an end to the downfall towards 52-week’s low of 2252; there is strong possibility for dow induced bounce tom and or Friday. So traders may use close TSL to their short positions or cover before EOD. The traders may re-enter PE / short mode again on Friday.

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Morning update Wed, 25th Feb:

2009-02-25T08:35:00.001+05:00

+ve open, use close TSL to long positions. If TSL hit, prefer intra-day trades with strict SL till last hour. Exit all positions to go flat on exp day.

Expect a +ve open in accordance to Asian counterparts. The traders holding long positions (as mentioned yesterday) should use close TSL and in case of TSL induced exit one should prefer intra day moves till last hour of trade. The traders should exit all positions before EOD and prefer to go flat on exp day.

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Morning update Tue, 24th Feb:

2009-02-24T08:16:00.001+05:00

-ve open, use close TSL to short / PE positions. If TSL hit, prefer intra-day trades with strict SL till last hour. In last hour:- BTST: NF

Expect a Gap down open in accordance to Asian counterparts. The traders holding short / PE positions should use close TSL and in case of TSL induced exit one should prefer intra day moves till last hour of trade. In the last hour of trade, the traders should exit all short / PE positions and risky traders may initiate long in NF as BTST.

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Morning update Fri, 20th Feb:

2009-02-20T08:51:00.000+05:00

-ve open, use close TSL to short / PE positions. If TSL hit, prefer intra-day longs with strict SL till last hour. In last hour:- BTST: 2900PE, STBT: NF

Expect a weak open in accordance to Asian counterparts. However there are strong chances for some recovery post Indian open. The traders holding short / PE positions should use close TSL and in case of TSL induced exit one should prefer intra day moves till last hour of trade. In the last hour of trade, the traders should re-initiate short in NF and Feb2900 PE as BTST.

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Morning update Wed, 18th Feb:

2009-02-18T08:29:00.001+05:00

Weak open, traders may go short with TSL for tomorrow open. The trade below 2750 could trigger further down move.

Expect a weak open with gap of 25-30 points and traders holding shorts / PE should add TSL at open itself. The trade below 2750 could trigger yet another down move for 2.6 K levels. In spite of some intra-day corrections, the traders may carry shorts /PE for tomorrow.

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Morning update Tue, 17th Feb:

2009-02-17T08:53:00.000+05:00

Weak open followed by further down. Short NF / buy 2900PE or 2800PE at open to cover EOD.

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Morning update Mon, 16th Feb:

2009-02-16T08:56:00.000+05:00

Expect a flat open for Indian markets and the traders should prefer intra-day trades only on this interim budget day.

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Morning update Fri, 13th Feb:

2009-02-13T08:39:00.000+05:00

Expect a flat open for Indian markets. The traders should prefer intra-day trade with short mode and all short / PE must be covered before EOD. Updates would be added through SMS channel.

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SMS CHANNEL

2009-02-12T09:26:00.000+05:00

Some readers of this blog mentioned that they can’t read blog / track chat room in their office hours or while travelling. For those readers ‘SMS CHANNEL’ link is provided. They should subscribe ‘Niftypredictor’ on their mobile. Every update on this blog would be received on their mobile by SMS.

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Morning update Thu, 12th Feb:

2009-02-12T09:13:00.000+05:00

Expect a slightly –ve open for Indian markets followed by a range-bound trade and the traders should prefer intra-day trades for small gains.
Those who are holding longs /CE must exit on any intra-day bounce or till EOD. At EOD, traders may go short or initiate PE to cover on Friday EOD.

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Morning update Wed, 11th Feb:

2009-02-11T08:53:00.000+05:00

Expect a gap down open for Indian markets and the traders who are holding shorts / PE should try to exit at open and prefer intra-day trades thereafter. There are some chances for recovery and the intra-day traders may initiate long with strict SL. High risk traders may carry long / CE for tomorrow, to cover Thursday EOD.

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Morning update Tue, 10th Feb:

2009-02-10T08:51:00.000+05:00

Expect a flat or slightly –ve open for Indian markets and the nifty may trade weak in accordance with other Asian counterparts. The traders may initiate short / PE at open to cover at EOD.

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Morning update Mon, 9th Feb:

2009-02-09T08:52:00.000+05:00

The Asians opened +ve with the dow induced influences, stimulus, bailout plans. However, they are losing their morning gains as trade progresses. Expect a flat open for Indian markets and the traders who had initiated shorts / PE should use TSL. The intra-day traders may initiate shorts on bounce to cover EOD.

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Morning update Fri, 6th Feb:

2009-02-06T08:44:00.001+05:00

Yesterday, it was mentioned to initiate longs / CE post noon and carry for Friday………………
Today, expect a +ve open for Indian markets and the intra-day traders may initiate long /2800CE at open itself. All such longs / CE must be covered in the last hour of trade. The traders should not carry any long positions for next week. In the last hour of trade, the positional traders may initiate short / 2800PE for next week.

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Morning update Thu, 5th Feb:

2009-02-05T08:45:00.000+05:00

Expect a ‘flat’ open for Indian markets and the nifty may trade weak till noon. Any decline till noon must be used to exit shorts / PE and initiate long / CE. The traders may carry such longs / CE for Friday.

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Morning update Wed, 4th Feb:

2009-02-04T08:44:00.000+05:00

Expect a slightly +ve open for Indian markets and nifty may try to breach yesterday high. The traders who are holding longs / CE must use this bounce to exit all long positions. The intra-day traders (long) must be very cautious with strict SL. The intra-day high before Europeans open should be used to initiate short / PE and the traders may carry those shorts / PE for Thursday open.

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Morning update Tue, 3rd Feb:

2009-02-03T08:46:00.001+05:00

Yesterday it was mentioned to book good profits in shorts / PE at EOD. Today, expect a flat or slightly +ve open and the traders should try intra-day trades for small gains only. There are strong chances for a small bounce and nifty may try to regain y’day losses as well retain levels till Wed noon. The traders may try intra-day longs with close SL till Wed noon.

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Morning update Mon, 2ed Feb:

2009-02-02T11:10:00.000+05:00

On Thursday, 29th, it was mentioned to go short / initiate PE. On Fri we got a gap down as expected and some traders booked profits at open itself. The recovery on Fri given excellent opportunity to add more shorts / average PE.
Today, expect yet another weak open and nifty will drift further. The traders may use any intra-day bounce to short again.
All shorts / PE should be covered at EOD. High risk traders may carry shorts in small qty for Tue.

http://niftypredictor.blogspot.com/

Morning update Thu, 29thJan:

2009-01-29T08:37:00.001+05:00

Yesterday, the NF buy call @2785 hits the exact target of 2850 as well most of the option traders almost doubled the investment in 2800CE. Those who are holding long /CE should use TSL after open itself.
Today, expect a +ve open and being a F & O exp day, the traders should try to exit all long positions before 02:00 pm and initiate Feb NF short / Feb 2900PE to carry for Mon 2ed Feb (short Feb 2900CE could be a better option).

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Morning update Wed, 28thJan:

2009-01-28T08:40:00.000+05:00

Expect a flat or +ve open for Indian markets and traders should prefer intra-day trades initially. The period post noon indicates an upward trend heading towards a ‘bullish’ expiry. Any intra-day decline should be utilized to initiate long and such long should be carried for Thu open.

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Morning update Fri, 23rdJan:

2009-01-23T09:01:00.000+05:00

Expect a flat open for Indian markets and some weakening is possible. Those who are holding shorts / PE should use TSL to save profits. High risk traders may carry shorts / PE for Tue open.

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Morning update Thu, 22thJan:

2009-01-22T08:41:00.000+05:00

Expect a +ve open for Indian markets and traders should prefer intra-day trades initially. Any indication of weakening should be used to initiate PE (of higher levels only) and such PE / shorts should be carried for Fri.

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Morning update Tue, 20thJan:

2009-01-20T09:06:00.000+05:00

Yesterday it was mentioned to cover all longs / CE before last hour of trade and the traders who had initiated ‘short’ / PE would be in good profit with –ve open today. The traders should prefer intraday trades with ‘short on rise’.

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Morning update Mon, 19thJan:

2009-01-19T08:47:00.000+05:00

On Friday it was mentioned in the chat room to initiate 2800CE for Mon. Today, expect a +ve open and the traders who had initiated long / CE should use TSL to protect profits. One may initiate with long for intra-day trade and all longs / CE should be covered before last hour of trade.

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Morning update Fri, 16thJan:

2009-01-16T08:59:00.000+05:00

Expect a flat or slightly +ve open for Indian markets and the nifty may try to retain levels for first hour of trade. Any indications of intra-day weakening post first hour should be used to add shorts / PE and the traders must book profits in shorts / PE at the end of day. The oncoming Monday indicates strong chances for yet another bounce and its better not to carry any un hedged positions.

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Morning update Thu, 15thJan:

2009-01-15T08:43:00.001+05:00

Yesterday it was clearly mentioned that “There are some chances for ‘heavyweight’ induced bounce which could be further used to short again”. Expect a gap down open today and those who have shorted at EOD (y’day) should use a close TSL to save profits after open. The traders may hold shorts / PE as well add more on intra-day bounce to cover at Fri EOD.

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Morning update Wed, 14thJan:

2009-01-14T08:47:00.000+05:00

Morning update Wed, 14thJan:
The last hour recovery in dow and +ve futures along with Asians trading firm this morning have influenced a pause for further drifting in nifty. Still no major up move is expected in initial hour and traders should try to reduce short / PE positions in the first hour of trade as well use close TSL for rest of the session. There are some chances for ‘heavyweight’ induced bounce which could be further used to short again.

http://niftypredictor.blogspot.com/

Morning update Tue, 13thJan:

2009-01-13T08:37:00.000+05:00

Expect a flat open followed by some volatile movements initially. Yesterday, it was mentioned in chat room to book profits in short / PE and re-initiate today on any bounce. Those who are holding shorts / PE should use close TSL to save profits and if TSL struck, one may re-enter on some bounce. The traders should re-enter in short mode or in PE before Europeans open and hold for Wed open. The nifty may start further drifting after Europeans open and for tomorrow, there are some strong chances for a gap down open.

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Morning update Mon, 12thJan:

2009-01-12T08:10:00.000+05:00

Those who are holding shorts / PE should use close TSL to save profits and if TSL struck, one may re-enter on some bounce. Those who have already booked shorts / PE should re-enter on bounce and carry for next two days.

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Morning update Fri, 9thJan:

2009-01-09T09:00:00.001+05:00

Patience paid well

2009-01-07T16:54:00.002+05:00

The positional call was mentioned on Mon to hold shorts and buy 3100PE / 3000PE. Most of the members of chat room were holding 3100PE @ 130 and even lower (averaged )
Today, 3100PE blasted to 270.
This is the best example, how patience pays.
Some ‘Bull’ were challenging PE in chat room. I hope, the ‘Time’ have replied them well.

http://niftypredictor.blogspot.com/

Morning update Mon, 5thJan:

2009-01-05T08:36:00.001+05:00

Morning update Mon, 5thJan:

The much awaited stimulus package, bullish US & European markets on Friday and the gap up open for Asians today morning could make traders ‘biased’ for 3.1K+ levels but it could be a ‘bull’s trap’.
Though the Asians opened gap up this morning, they could loose their opening gains gradually and there are strong chances to close in red.
As already mentioned in update for Friday, expect a flat or +ve open for Indian markets. However this bullish move would be for a very short life (just first hour of trade). Those who are long should exit at open itself and initiate short (NF) or buy 3100PE / 3000PE. The nifty may try to retain levels for first hour of trade followed by drifting to close in red.
The breach of 3010 would impart upper edge for bears and Tue indicates strong chances for a gap down open. The traders may carry their shorts / PE for Tue.

http://niftypredictor.blogspot.com/

Morning update Fri, 2ed Jan:

2009-01-02T09:05:00.001+05:00

Morning update Fri, 2ed Jan:

The New year started on a +ve note and nifty touched 3050 mark as mentioned.
With many bullish signals indicating the probable target of 3.1K levels, the market is heading towards the possible fall on Mon.
Today’s trade & Mon open would be a intermediate phase between the achieved rise and probable fall ahead.
Though the Asians (Hangseng) opened on a highly bullish note, their up move is likely to be restricted after Indian open.
The traders should prefer intra-day trade with strict SL for either side. Any indications for weakening after a few minute of trade should be used to go short or buy 3100PE. The open for Monday would be a hurdle to carry those shorts and the traders should judge better with relation to performance of Europeans and Dow futures. (one may enter short / PE after Mon open also to avoid risk)
On Monday, the Nifty would drift after open followed by a gap down on Tue and the shorts / PE could generate good profits.

http://niftypredictor.blogspot.com/

Morning update Thu, 1st Jan:

2009-01-01T09:02:00.000+05:00

Morning update Thu, 1st Jan:

Wish you all a Happy New Year.
Yesterday, it was a range bound trade with low volume as expected. Today, with most of the world markets being closed, expect yet another day with low volume but in a positive direction.
The traders may initiate long / call at the open for intra-day trade to cover at EOD.
Though the intra-day trade range is small, the crossover and trade above 2980 can take nifty towards 3050.

http://niftypredictor.blogspot.com/

Morning update Wed, 31st Dec:

2008-12-31T08:56:00.001+05:00

Morning update Wed, 31st Dec:

Expect a positive open for Indian markets and the trade within few minutes after open would decide the trend for rest of the day. With low volume trade, the traders should trade light and with strict SL.
One may initiate longs / 3000CE with strict SL for intra-day trade. If nifty sustains over 3K, one may carry these longs / call for Thursday, 1st Jan or one may re-initiate on Thursday open.

http://niftypredictor.blogspot.com/

Morning update Mon, 22ed Dec:

2008-12-22T09:00:00.000+05:00

Morning update Mon, 22ed Dec:

Though the Asian counterparts are trading weak, expect a flat open for Indian markets with positive movements for rest of the day. The traders should avoid heavy trades near expiry of this month. For intra-day trade, one may initiate long at open to cover at EOD.

Morning update Thu, 18th Dec:

2008-12-18T08:51:00.000+05:00

Morning update Thu, 18th Dec:

The market reacted exactly as mentioned. However it is observed that yesterday’s drifting had made many traders ‘biased’ again to add more shorts……………
The traders should prefer to exit shorts gradually (till Fri) and prefer to trade light for intra-day only till Friday as there are some chances for a bounce on Monday, the start of exp week.
For today’s trade (if holding shorts) one should use TSL to protect gains and prefer intra-day trades if TSL struck.

Morning update Wed, 17th Dec:

2008-12-17T08:50:00.000+05:00

Morning update Wed, 17th Dec:

The Fed rate cuts induced bounce in dow terminated the chances for a gap down but it can be clearly seen that the Asians are gradually losing their morning gains as the trade progresses. The dow futures indicating the chances for weakening tonight.
Whatever may be the open, one can go short till end of the day or risky traders may gamble tom open.
Those who are trapped in shorts at earlier levels may try to avg it and book at EOD or tom open to reduce losses.

Morning update Tue, 16th Dec:

2008-12-16T08:29:00.000+05:00

Morning update Tue, 16th Dec:

Expect a flat or slightly weak open and the trade below 2980 could drift nifty towards 2940, followed by 2905. Tomorrow is yet another weak day indicating strong chances for a gap-down and traders may carry their shorts for tomorrow.

Morning update Fri, 12th Dec:

2008-12-12T08:11:00.000+05:00

Morning update Fri, 12th Dec:

Yesterday, nifty failed to close above 2950 and it was mentioned in chat room to initiate fresh shorts / puts (2900PE&2800PE).
Today, expect the nifty to open weak and the 2860 levels would be important to watch. The breach of 2860 and trade below it would pull it to retest the last week high at 2832 and 2800 levels.
The next 3days till Wed 17th would be favorable for bears and the traders should hold shorts/ puts as well add more on breach of major supports.

Morning update Mon, 8th Dec:

2008-12-08T08:43:00.000+05:00

Morning update Mon, 8th Dec:

In the weekly views of last week it was mentioned to exit all shorts for the possibility of a bounce on Friday or Monday. It was also mentioned that (However this bounce would be short lived and the oncoming week post Mon indicates downtrend resuming again)
Today, expect a +ve open above or around 2.8k levels followed by a volatile session ahead.
The traders should prefer intra-day trades initially and use the probable intra-day high (within 1st hour of trade) to initiate positional shorts/ put near to index value.
Tomorrow, it’s a trading holiday for Indian markets but all Asians are expected to trade weak tomorrow followed by Europeans and Dow.
In order to balancing with other counterparts, Indian markets may start drifting from Wednesday and the positional shorts initiated today could be in good profits.

Morning update Tue, 2ed Dec:

2008-12-02T08:17:00.000+05:00

Morning update Tue, 2ed Dec:

With all Asians counterparts trading weak, expect a gap down open for nifty.
The open around or below 2.6K mark would drift it further towards major support area 2540-2550. The breach of this support would initiate the fall to re-test the earlier lows or even making new low in this month itself.
The traders may hold shorts/ initiate new on any bounce as mentioned in weekly view.

WEEKLY VIEWS:

2008-12-01T19:33:00.002+05:00

WEEKLY VIEWS:

The week started with +ve bias initially to lift nifty above 2.8K mark in the initial trade of Mon but failed to sustain above 2800. The oncoming Tue & Wed indicates further weakening and the positional traders holding short positions may hold shorts(with TSL) to cover on Wed at EOD.
On Thursday, one should prefer intra-day trade only and exit all shorts before EOD as the Fri indicates strong chances for a bounce. However this bounce would be short lived and the oncoming week post Mon indicates downtrend resuming again.

Morning update Wed, 26th Nov:

2008-11-26T08:40:00.001+05:00

Morning update Wed, 26th Nov:

In spite of gap up y’day, nifty was unable to sustain above 2780 which could have strengthened the further up move. Even after yesterday’s decline, there are strong chances for a positive bias today.
With the expiry being underway, traders should concentrate on intra-day trades only.
The trade above 2700 can make it retest y’day high of 2790 or even higher and on lower side, the breach of 2630 could make it very weak.

Morning update Tue, 25th Nov:

2008-11-25T08:47:00.001+05:00

Morning update Tue, 25th Nov:

Expect the strong gap up open (sustaining) followed by further up move. Those who are holding long positions/ calls as mentioned earlier should monitor with TSL just to save profits.
The intra-day traders may initiate with ‘long’ even after gap up open.
The traders should book profits in long/calls at EOD.

Morning update Mon, 24th Nov:

2008-11-24T08:44:00.000+05:00

Morning update Mon, 24th Nov:

Today, it could be a volatile day with lot of uncertainties. Since the oncoming Tue indicates strong chances for a ‘bounce’, one should trade accordingly. For today’s trade, one should watch the trend after open carefully and the trend initiating after open may continue further. The trade in small quantity is preferable with strict SL to avoid losses.
Those who have already initiated the ‘long’ position on Fri should hold with strict TSL to cover on Tue. Traders should prefer intra-day moves and at the EOD, one may hold ‘long’ position/ ‘call’ to carry for Tue.

Morning update Fri, 21st Nov:

2008-11-21T08:47:00.001+05:00

Morning update Fri, 21st Nov:

Yesterday, it was mentioned (breach of 2490 could weaken the nifty further to taste 2430) but the support acted well enabling some recovery by short covering. It influenced a ‘false’ sense of bullishness among many to generate calls to go long. However I was clearly mentioned in Thursday update………….(Though there are some chances for downtrend prevailing on Fri too, the traders should book profits at the EOD today, and re-initiate fresh after opening on Fri)
Today, expect yet another weak open and it’s better to concentrate on intra-day trade only. The breach of 2490-2480 can drift it further to 2430. However in recovery mode with other Asians counterpart, it may try to reach upper resistance levels at 2580(if 2430 support sustains).

Morning update Thu, 20th Nov:

2008-11-20T08:59:00.000+05:00

Morning update Thu, 20th Nov:

Today, it’s Thursday…………………..the only thing to mention.
Rest, everything was mentioned from the day, week started itself. (Most of the traders have already brought puts or shorted nifty as mentioned yesterday)
The ‘anticipated’ gap down today may see the nifty to open at 2540 mark (target mentioned earlier) or even breach it in open itself. Whatever the case may be, the further drifting after open could see the 2540-2490 supports under threat and the breach of 2490 could weaken the nifty further to taste 2430 or even lower levels.
With Asians & Europeans trading in the similar way, the chances for any recovery seems difficult.
The traders know well how to use ‘TSL’ to save their profits.
Though there are some chances for downtrend prevailing on Fri too, the traders should book profits at the EOD today, and re-initiate fresh after opening on Fri.

Morning update Wed, 19th Nov:

2008-11-19T08:51:00.000+05:00

Morning update Wed, 19th Nov:

Yesterday, it was mentioned to exit all shorts to reinitiate fresh on Wed.
With rebound at Wall streets in last hour as well Europeans closing in +ve influenced a distinct possibility for some bounce in Asians today morning but Asians opened flat with slightly –ve bias.
Today, it could be a ‘range-bound’ session with some volatile moves suitable for intra-day trade and traders should concentrate on most likely fall on Thursday and trade according.
But there are some chances that the anticipated fall may initiate today itself in accordance to other Asian counterparts. The trade below y’day low would push nifty in ‘gap-zone’ and nifty would continue its down move till 2540 mark as mentioned yesterday.
Today, the traders should carry their ‘shorts’ / puts to cover on Thursday. (Gap-down possible on Thu)

Morning update Tue, 18th Nov:

2008-11-18T08:57:00.000+05:00

Morning update Tue, 18th Nov:

The recovery (?) seen in yesterday’s trade from day’s lows has trapped some as well influenced a ‘fake’ bullishness for many.
But this week is certainly in favor of ‘Bears’ and those who are holding ‘shorts’ or ‘puts’ need not to worry much.
However one must book profits regularly as well try to exit by EOD for today.
Today, nifty may open weak and trade in a volatile way with –ve bias. In spite of such volatile moves, if nifty manage to break y’day low of 2694, there are strong chances that nifty may retest the 2540 mark or even lower up to Thursday closing.

Morning update Mon, 17th Nov:

2008-11-17T09:19:00.000+05:00

Morning update Mon, 17th Nov:

The market is expected to open flat or on slightly positive note to head for a volatile session ideal for intra-day trades only.
Avoid initiating any positional move.
For intra-day trade, break below 2810 would lead to major support area 2760 and break of 2760 only could open the way for further down levels. (Chances seem less for today’s trade).
The nifty may trade ‘range bound’ today and attempt to regain 2.9K levels if other Asians as well European markets shows some strength.

Morning update Fri, 14th Nov:

2008-11-14T08:54:00.000+05:00

Morning update Fri, 14th Nov:

The good IIP no. & inflation as well recovery of Dow in last hours to close 552 points up would explain why it was mentioned to chase the decline with TSL and let the nifty make a ‘safe exit’ for your shorts on Wed, 12th Nov.
Today, expect a +ve open for Indian markets but any such bounce would be an ‘invitation’ for fresh shorts. The nifty is expected to open around 2.9K mark and sustaining above it could enable it to see even 2950 levels. The trade above 2950 may invite short covering to see 3.0 K levels.
However, unable to sustain this gap-up would drift it towards 2850-2830 or even below it at major support zone 2775. Any tough resistance on higher side could be used for intra-day shorts and it’s better to exit all positions before EOD to initiate fresh on Mon.

Morning update Wed, 12th Nov:

2008-11-12T08:57:00.001+05:00

Morning update Wed, 12th Nov:

The excessive drifting y’day and close in support zone have made the task for Bears a bit difficult for today’s trade.
It’s better to add trailing SL to all shorts / puts at the open itself.
Though Dow’s close in red y’day as expected…..the recovery in last hour followed by dow futures trading +ve would influence surprising moves in our markets. Still the trade till noon don not indicates any big up move. It would be interesting for today to watch if Nifty trades below 2915. It could drift further to much awaited 2860 zone which would offer good support and unable to break it before 01:00 pm would invite some short covering.
On higher side, clearing the 2960-70 zones would lift it up over 3K levels.
The trades in short mode need to trail with monitoring SL till 01:00pm.
If SL hits, better to concentrate on intra-day trade for rest of the day.

Morning update Tue, 11th Nov:

2008-11-11T11:47:00.000+05:00

Morning update Tue, 11th Nov:

Dear friends, I have got many massages for update………………….
Please check the earlier post of 10th Nov. Everything is mentioned clearly till Wed.

Morning update Mon, 10th Nov:

2008-11-10T09:02:00.001+05:00

Morning update Mon, 10th Nov:

In spite of all global +ve clues, do not expect any ‘huge’ rallies on higher side. It’s the time when ‘longs’ should be kept with strict ‘SL’. One may prefer intra-day trades only today and the break below 2960 could be safer for ‘short’ today. Still there are some chances for 3065/3100 and 3180 on higher side.
It’s the well experienced facts that any big move can be outcome of a ‘gap-up’ or ‘gap-down’ and we could make good profits out of it.
I wish to attract your attentions towards such ‘big move’. On the oncoming Mar’s day (11th Nov), the Mars is supposed to strengthen the ‘Bears’. The Dow would show its real colures on Tue night.
Please take it as an opportunity to initiate shorts/puts on Tuesday and carry such shorts for Wed to enjoy a good gap down followed by further weakening on Wed.

Morning update Fri, 7th Nov:

2008-11-07T08:39:00.000+05:00

Morning update Fri, 7th Nov:

Many readers were surprised as it was mentioned to cover shorts by EOD y’day.
In spite of fall in US & European markets yesterday night, the Asians are recovering fast this morning from their weak open. (SGX CNX Nifty opened at 2752 have recovered till 2860)
Today, it could be a ‘pause’ for downtrend prevailing or even there are strong chances for a surprising bounce coupled with +ve dow futures. Yesterday, it was mentioned that Dow has strong chances for an up move on Fri.
Today, the traders should concentrate on intra-day trade only and trade below 2850 could be safer to go short with strict SL. The sustaining above 2910 could lift it to 2945/2975 and even 3000.
It’s better to close all positions before EOD.

Morning update Thu, 6th Nov:

2008-11-06T08:44:00.000+05:00

Morning update Thu, 6th Nov:
Yesterday, I had mentioned in chat room to initiate shorts / put as well hold for today. The yesterday’s mega fall as well Gap-down today would make it in good profits. Today, even after gap-down, there are strong chances for further drifting and the Nifty would march towards tasting earlier lows. The traders may hold shorts or re-initiate at open but all such shorts should be covered by EOD.
The oncoming Fri indicates some volatile movements and it’s better to try only intra-day trades on Fri.
On Fri, there are strong chances for an up move in DOW which may influence the open of Asians on Mon.

Morning update Fri, 31stOct:

2008-10-31T08:56:00.000+05:00

Morning update Fri, 31stOct:

The huge rallies of Asians on Thursday coupled with +ve close of Dow influenced the chances for a ‘gap-up’ open in Indian markets. However it seems difficult to retain these gains for today’s trade and Nifty may weaken even after gap-up open. The oncoming days till Wed indicate some volatile movements in either side and it’s better to wait for positional moves.
The intra-day traders may try some shorts at ‘gap-up’ open.

Morning update Wed, 29thOct:

2008-10-29T08:21:00.000+05:00

Morning update Wed, 29thOct:

Expect a good ‘gap-up’ open around 2.8k and this uptrend would prevail for entire day. Though it’s an expiry day, chances for volatility are less and one may initiate with ‘long’ from the opening itself till EOD.
Those who are holding call / longs should hold with ‘TSL’ but it’s better to cover all such longs at EOD as tomorrow is a trading holiday and the oncoming Fri indicates some weakening.

Muhurat Trading: October 28, 2008

2008-10-28T09:07:00.000+05:00

Muhurat Trading: October 28, 2008

(6:15 pm to 7:15 pm on October 28, 2008)
With +ve sentiments of Divali all over, expect the +ve open at Muhurat trading. The opening bells of Dow would initiate a sharp up move here too from the period post 06:30pm IST and the ‘intra-hour’ traders have better to buy at open itself & cover at cls.
Since this uptrend would prevail on oncoming Wed too, one may carry long / call overnight for good profits on Wed.

Morning update Mon, 27thOct:

2008-10-27T08:49:00.000+05:00

Morning update Mon, 27thOct:

On Fri it was mentioned (The oncoming Monday indicates some volatile movements and there are some chances for a ‘surprising’ bounce as well so it’s better not to carry overnight short positions)
The SGX CNX Nifty opening at 2600 itself confirms such possibilities. One must observe for the trend carefully at the opening and if nifty starts any movement in the upward direction, one may ride over long for intra-day gains.
However with Asians weakening further, the nifty may drift further from opening itself as mentioned earlier in the post ‘VIJAYDASHMI TO DIWALI’.
The intra-day traders may initiate with short but such shorts must be covered before EOD as the oncoming Wed indicates strong chances for a sharp up move.
The high risk traders may carry long/ call for Wed initiating at EOD levels of today.

Morning update Fri, 24thOct:

2008-10-24T07:15:00.000+04:00

Morning update Fri, 24thOct:

It’s time to put ‘SL’ for overnight shorts at the opening bell as well try to exit on any decline before 02:00pm. The +ve close of Dow & Europe yesterday night could not prevent the Asians from a weak open today as expected. Today, the Nifty would open weak (below 2.9k mark) and drift further but one must be careful for ‘short-covering’ induced bounces.
Whatever may be ‘open’ the period up to 02:00pm indicates one-sided trade to make a new low and in intra-day moves, ‘long’ have very limited opportunities (one may watch for such opportunities post 02:30pm).
Yesterday, it was mentioned about (‘short-covering’ influenced bounce up to 02:00pm which should be shorted boldly). The down trend resumed again exactly on 02:00pm yesterday.
Today, for positional traders, it’s better to cover all shorts around 02:00pm to 02:30pm and trade ‘light’ with proper SL on intra-day basis thereafter. The oncoming Monday indicates some volatile movements and there are some chances for a ‘surprising’ bounce as well so it’s better not to carry overnight short positions.

Morning update Thu, 23rd Oct:

2008-10-23T07:46:00.000+04:00

Morning update Thu, 23rd Oct:
The readers must be remembering the ‘call’ mentioned on Tue to short nifty around 3250 levels and hold till Mon. It’s always a ‘pleasure’ to see the targets achieving accurately but this time it’s a lot of pain as well to see nifty trading below 3K mark. (Just think of investors who have invested their hard earned money)
Anyway, the market continues to make a new low and even trying to breach it again as expected. Following to all global negativities nifty may open below 3K mark even close to 2.9K today.
The traders holding shorts should put ‘TSL’ as there are some chances for ‘short-covering’ induced bounce. Any such bounce before 02:00pm must be used boldly to re-enter short mode.
The intra-day traders must be very cautious not to enter any ‘long’ positions and to short and then cover could be the safe way only.
The breach of 2930/2900 would re-taste the 2006’s low of 2878 and nifty would be on the way to set a newest low till Monday closing.

Morning update Wed, 22ed Oct:

2008-10-22T08:02:00.000+04:00

Morning update Wed, 22ed Oct:

Yesterday, it was mentioned (High risk traders may initiate short /put as the major downtrend may resume hereafter). For positional traders, it was a good move to initiate shorts at 3250 levels as the nifty failed to cross 3260 and trade above it. The oncoming few days (till Mon 27th) indicates strong chances for a new low in spite of some possible bounces.
Today, following to global clues the nifty may open weak initially (around or below 3.2K mark). Failing to sustain above 3190 can drift it further to 3150 or even 3120/ 3100 levels which would invite a small bounce on Thursday which could not sustain any more clearing the way for a possible new low on Mon.
On higher side, the trade above 3245NF could enable it to clear 3260 resistance and even taste 3.3K levels but chances for such up move are very difficult for today’s trade.
The positional traders may hold shorts till oncoming Mon boldly. The views for next few days (till Divali) are mentioned in the post: V VIJAYDASHMI TO DIWALI .

Morning update Tue, 21st Oct:

2008-10-21T07:42:00.001+04:00

Morning update Tue, 21st Oct:
The uptrend resumed in last session is supposed to continue slowly and nifty may open above 3.2K mark. Sustaining above 3230 / 3260 could enable it to cross 3.3k mark. However the day indicates some volatile up & downs and since it’s a small bounce in a major down trend, traders should exit their long positions on such bounces and try to gain in intra-day moves only. High risk traders may initiate short /put as the major downtrend may resume hereafter.

Weekly views

2008-10-20T17:22:00.000+04:00

Dear Friends,
I have received many massages for weekly views. However it's a part of earlier post 'VIJAYDASHMI TO DIWALI'.
It is already updated................
Please check it again.
Regards.

Morning update Mon, 20th Oct:

2008-10-20T07:41:00.001+04:00

Morning update Mon, 20th Oct:
In the views for Friday, 17th, it was mentioned about ‘bullish breakout on Mon’.
Today, expect the nifty to open around 3.1k mark or slightly above it. (On Fri, it was mentioned to go long from EOD levels & cover on Mon).
With Asians trading +ve, it could move above 3140/3160. The trade above 3160 would propel it over 3.2k mark and ‘short covering’ would lift it up above 3260 or even within 3.3K-3.4K zone.
Today, the chances for drifting (as on Fri) are very less hence lower levels are not mentioned.
The trader may go long for intra-day moves from the opening itself and it would be much safer to cover all longs before EOD. Prior to Oct exp, there are chances for some more up but it’s still risky to carry longs overnight.

Morning update Fri, 17th Oct:

2008-10-17T07:46:00.000+04:00

Morning update Fri, 17th Oct:
It’s a typical ‘transition’ day prior to a bullish breakout on oncoming Mon. On Mon, the ‘bulls’ would be planning to fill all gaps left so far. In the light of those facts, it would be too risky to hold shorts overnight.
Today, Asians are trading mix in spite of strong recovery of Dow after European closing. However, the Asians are expected to recover as day progresses. Expect a flat or slightly up open for Indian markets and the nifty would try to retain levels to make a way for much expected bullish move on Mon.
The nifty spot may open near to 3.3K mark and try to make an up move above 3330 / 3360 levels.
The b/o of 3360 could make it close above 3.4K levels.
The resistance offered by ‘bears’ for this up move could be weak enough to pull it down below supports 3230 / 3200. One may go long on any declines and high risk traders may carry longs/ calls overnight for good gains on Mon.

Morning update Thu, 16th Oct 09:30AM

2008-10-16T07:47:00.000+04:00

Morning update Thu, 16th Oct 09:30AM
It was mentioned yesterday…… (High risk traders may carry shorts / put overnight but any such shorts must be covered at opening bell (09:55:30IST) on Thursday).
‘The fortune favors the brave’. Those who are holding ‘shorts’ …must be in a good profit as of now.
After the ‘Waterloo’ at Wall streets yesterday night, it’s interesting to see how much Asians can recover till Indians opens.
Since there is distinct possibility for some bounce from today’s opening levels, expecting further drift could be risky and traders are advised to add strict TSL for their short positions.
One must watch carefully for a few min after opening and any signs of ‘recovery’ should be accepted as an ‘invitation’ to exit short mode and go long for some instant gains.
However if unable to recover, one may go short to taste a ‘new low’.
Nifty spot have support levels at 3250/3210/3190 which is under strong ‘threat’ to be breached in the ‘gap-down’ open itself. The breach of 3190 and trade below it would drift it further to 3140 and break of it will be a start of journey to make a new low.
With Asians recovering, the nifty will face resistance at 3350/3390 and sustaining above it would be a faster move towards 3.5K.

Morning update Wed, 15th Oct

2008-10-15T07:39:00.001+04:00

Morning update Wed, 15th Oct
Yesterday, Dow moved up to +400 pts initially and tasted -300 pts as well finally closing in red as expected. Today, Dow may experience yet another ‘fall’ with it’s futures trading -145 as of now.
The Asians trading weak could see nifty opening around 3450 or 3430 levels. The weakening would prevail all the day in spite of various attempts by government. The RBI’s, FM’s or PM’s attempts would not influence anything for up move today but it can be assumed that it could restrict a ‘big fall’ on cards to some extent.
The 3475 & 3425 are the initial supports which are under threat to breach in the open itself. The 3370 levels offers some pause for further down but breach of 3370 (possible today) can drift it more down till 3330 or 3300 levels.
On the higher side (possibility is very less for today) 3545 / 3595 /3635 are the levels offering resistance and breach of these levels would enable nifty to see levels above 3.7K (It would be not less than any miracle if happens so today)
One may go short for entire day boldly and intra-day traders should be cautious to short first then cover only.
High risk traders may carry shorts / put overnight but any such shorts must be covered at opening bell (09:55:30IST) on Thursday.

Morning update Tue, 14th Oct

2008-10-14T07:15:00.000+04:00

Morning update Tue, 14th Oct
In weekly views whatever mentioned for Tue initiated on Monday itself. The Dow futures turning bullish influenced short covering and the positive clues from Asians as well European markets supported nifty to cross the 3.5K mark.
Dow making a highest intra-day gain for past 69 years and followed by positive Asians open, the nifty would try to breach resistance levels 3600/3640 and even 3700 in the huge gap up open itself.
One may go long with this uptrend as already mentioned in weekly views but after 01:00pm, it’s better to use TSL for such longs. The trade above 3700 could incline many traders to initiate new positional longs but there is distinct possibility to get trapped very next day (Wed).
To save the earned profit is more important than trying for more. It’s better to exit all such longs / calls before EOD and high risk traders can initiate shorts / puts.
Tomorrow (Wed) indicates strong chances for a ‘fall’ in all markets including Dow.

Morning update Mon, 13th Oct 09:30AM

2008-10-13T08:22:00.000+04:00

Morning update Mon, 13th Oct 09:30AM
With Dow futures trading bullish, the Asians are recovering from their flat open.
SGX CNX Nifty Index Futures are +80.
One may consider it as a ‘pause’ for downtrend prevailing so far or even it could be a start of ‘fake up move’ as mentioned for Tue 14th in weekly views.
The traders may use this up move to go long till Tue 14th. But such longs must be covered on 14th as already mentioned.

Morning update Mon, 13th Oct

2008-10-12T14:37:00.000+04:00

Good Morning Friends,
One must accept the fact that the intra-day ‘trading range’ for indices had broaden widely for past few days with volatility at its peak. With the influences of global markets making new lows, everyone would be impatient to see the opening on Mon. Though many are expecting huge relief rallies, the weekly views posted here indicates clearly that some pains are still there to experience.
On Mon, the Asians may open with flat to –ve bias & the nifty may find its initial support around 3250 levels. However with Asians being weaker, there are strong chances of breaching this support in opening itself to taste another support at 3230. These supports being weak, there is strong possibility of tasting Fri low 3199 again and even breaking it before 11:00AM. However, if unable to break it before 11:00AM, some recovery will initiate from 11:00AM. The nifty will try to chase the earlier close 3279.95 up to 01:00PM. On upper side, 3300 & 3320 offers some resistance and breach of these resistances may enable nifty to see 3365 /3395 (chances seems difficult at this stage).
The intra-day traders should initiate with opening trend prevailing till 11:00 then watch carefully for changes in trend around 01:00pm & 03:00pm.
Do not carry short positions overnight as there are some chances for a ‘short bounce’ on Tue.
Since these views are being posted on Sun, some changes according to opening of Asians are possible and I would try to update in market hours whenever necessary.

Wishing you happy & profitable trade today,

PAST ARCHIVES

2008-10-11T12:54:00.000+04:00

Dear Friends,
For referance of earlier posts please find at following link:
http://www.vfmdirect.com/forums/postbyuser.cgi?userid=chaitreyashastri
Regards,

VIJAYDASHMI TO DIWALI

2008-10-10T16:49:00.000+04:00

VIJAYADASHMI TO DIWALI

Though it’s a trading holiday for Indian markets, the Europeans as well Dow would trade weak and the moves mentioned for 8th Oct would found to be risk rewarding.

(Wed, 08th Oct: It’s better to concentrate on intra-day trade for small gains. The high risk traders may carry shorts or put to cover at opening bell of Fri. The DOW weakening post 11:30 pm IST could prove this move to be a correct one.)

Today, the Dow may turn volatile initially but after the closing of Europeans, it may weaken further with strong chances for a huge fall initiating a gap-down for Indian markets on Fri.

Fri, 10th Oct:
Expect a good gap-down open for Indian market with all Asians as well. Cover the shorts at ‘opening bells’ to re-initiate on some bounce. The day indicates good opportunities for intra-day trades but avoid any longs as there is risk for ‘lower circuit’. Short first-then cover only. Whatever may be the levels around 03:00 pm, a short after 03:00 could gain good points for last half hour trade. The high risk traders may carry shorts or put to cover on Mon.

Mon, 13th Oct:
The market may open weak initially and it’s better to cover shorts at ‘opening bells’. The day indicates volatile up & downs ideal for intra-day trades only. Since Tue indicates strong chances for a ‘fake’ up move, one may (risky) go with ‘short in put’.

Tue, 14th Oct:
The market may open with an illusionary up trend. One should check for just 5-10 min after open and if notices up move, go long for intra-day. Do not forget to cover such longs before EOD and go short for Wed. If downtrend initiates after open, it may prevail further. (watch then act accordingly)

Wed, 15th Oct:
The market would open with –ve bias and trade in downtrend for rest of the day. Intra-day traders should short first then cover only. High risk traders may carry shorts but strictly to cover at ‘opening-bells’ only.

Thu, 16th Oct:
The market may open weak initially giving an opportunity to cover shorts at open itself.
However, whatever may be the open; there are strong chances for a fast recovery with an uptrend. One may go long with opening itself for rest of the day as well risky trader may carry longs for Fri. Initiating ‘call’ could be risk rewarding.

Fri, 17th Oct:
The uptrend set on earlier session continues and market would notice a consecutive +ve close. One may carry longs / calls for oncoming Mon.

Mon, 20th Oct:
The market is expected to open with uptrend as mentioned earlier. The +ve trend prevails for entire day and a +ve close is also expected. Though this +ve trend may prevail on oncoming Tuesday, it’s better not to carry long positions overnight as this up move is of ‘short-live’. The high risk traders seeking the advantage for possible ‘gap up’ may try to carry such long / calls but such calls must be covered with Tue open.

Tue, 21st Oct:
The market is expected to open with +ve bias and there are some chances for a gap-up as well. However sustaining at such higher levels would be difficult with volatile up & downs. The traders much exit their longs/ calls and try to gain in intra-day moves only. High risk traders may initiate short /put as the downtrend may resume hereafter.

Wed, 22ed Oct:
The market may notice a –ve open with drifting further. However some volatile movements are also possible. The traders may hold short/put or reinitiate on every bounce boldly.
Tomorrow, whatever would be the open, the nifty would resume it’s down motion for making new lows after 02:20pm IST. Try to exit any longs/call before this time.

Thu, 23rd Oct:
Whatever may be the open, the nifty will weaken from the period post 02:20pm and one must get rid of any long positions before it. The closing might be at day’s low with distinct possibility of gap-down on yet another ‘black Friday’.

Fri, 24th Oct:
It could be a typical ‘black Friday’ with huge gap-down open followed by further drifting. The period up to 02:30 indicates one-sided movement in south however some attempts to regains are possible in last hour of trade. The traders may carry their short positions/ put boldly as the oncoming Mon indicates yet another day with –ve bias.

Mon, 27th Oct:
The nifty continues to drift further for entire day making new lows. However, the traders must cover all shorts/ put before EOD as the oncoming Wed indicates strong chances for a sharp up move.

Tue, 28th Oct:
Wish you Happy Divali. With +ve sentiments of Divali all over, expect the +ve open at Muhurat trading. The opening bells of Dow would initiate a sharp up move here too from the period post 06:30pm IST and the ‘intra-hour’ traders have better to buy at open itself & cover at cls.
Since this uptrend would prevail on oncoming Wed too, one may carry long / call overnight for good profits on Wed.

Wed, 29th Oct:
The market is expected to open with a sharp uptrend and this uptrend may prevail for entire day. The traders may initiate long position from opening itself but strictly to cover before EOD.

Thu, 30th Oct: Trading Holiday.

HAPPY VIJAYADASHAMI

2008-10-09T09:20:00.000+04:00

I would like to wish all friends visiting my blog on this auspicious day.
This is a small/humble way of trying to judge the market trend.
I hope your visit here would be an enriching experience.